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Optimal Testing Strategies for Genetically Modified Wheat
William W. Wilson, Eric J. Jabs, and Bruce L.
Dahl
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A stochastic
optimization model was developed to determine optimal testing
strategies, costs, and risks of a dual marketing system. The model
chooses the testing strategy (application, intensity, and tolerance)
that maximizes utility (minimizes disutility) of additional system costs
due to testing and quality loss and allows simulation of the risk
premium required to induce grain handlers to undertake a dual marketing
system versus a Non-GM system. Cost elements including those related to
testing, quality loss, and a risk premium were estimated for a model
representing a grain export chain. Uncertainties were incorporated and
include test accuracy, risk of adventitious commingling throughout, and
variety declaration. Sensitivities were performed for effects of variety
risks, penalty differentials, re-elevation discounts, import tolerances,
variety declaration, risk aversion, GM adoption, and domestic end-user.
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