How to evaluate a prediction of the future

 

The prophecies of psychics can be evaluated critically. To be counted as a hit (shown to be accurate and true), a prophecy of the future must be specific in terms of WHEN an event is predicted, month, year, decade, etc. With more specific details, the reason to believe is more compelling.  The place where the predicted event will occur must be specified, WHERE is the predicted event going to occur? If X is predicted to occur in Seoul, Korea, that would be more specific and thus more convincing than a prediction that X will occur somewhere in Asia.  Finally, the type of event must be specified, WHAT exactly is being predicted?  WHO is going to experience the predicted event may need to be asked.  With only general terms of time, place and type of event, a prediction cannot be scored as a  hit and may be non-falsifiable.  Vague predictions allow for believers to “see what they want to see” and conclude a prediction is verified when such a conclusion is not justified.

To say that a prediction is still in the future means the prediction cannot be evaluated but it is usually a way that psychics “explain” and rationalize their failures. Put it this way: Precision in a prediction is a way of conforming with an “operational definition” of what is supposed to happen, where, when, how it will be known to have actually occurred, etc.   The use of a clearly and unambiguous operational definition of procedures, measurements and expected outcomes is a hallmark of a science. A pseudoscience typically tries to avoid precision of its procedures, measurements and outcomes.

 

Compare a prediction of “There will be upheaval in the  North American landmass in the near future” with “A meteorite will strike Manhattan, Kansas on July 4, 2006 causing a massive crater and fires, virtually destroying the city.”  One of these predictions is so vague it could mean almost anything, which means it is non-falsifiable, a sign of pseudoscience.  The other prediction can easily be shown to be false when it fails to happen. 

 

Guess what type of predictions Nostradamus is known for?  In other cases, psychics have made predictions with enough specificity to be evaluated and the predictions have, without exception, shown to be false.  Edgar Cayce’s numerous predictions have all been shown to be false. 

 

A challenge to the believer: If anyone wants to provide original quotes of at least 10 predictions from a psychic with enough specificity of time, place and event or person to be scored and evaluated, and which can unambiguously shown to be true and we should all (including me!) have reason to believe such  a psychic is in fact a psychic.  I would gladly eat my words.